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dmmelidourado.com/blog/notes-on-technology-2020s/
A technology-optimistic forecast with a lot of interesting data. (The productivity curve flattening since around 2005 is stunning; interestingly enough, that curve has a good run from approx 1993 to approx 2005, mediocre between early 1970-s and early 1990-s, decent before early 1970-s.)
Other tidbits include a report on news.berkeley.edu/2020/06/15/diluting-blood-plasma-rejuvenates-tissue-reverses-aging-in-mice/
"solar, wind, and battery technology where prices have fallen 90, 70, and 87 percent over the last ten years": from www.agglomerations.tech/cracks-in-the-great-stagnation/
Space launch costs down to $2600/kg with Falcon-9 and $1500/kg with Falcon Heavy aerospace.csis.org/data/space-launch-to-low-earth-orbit-how-much-does-it-cost/
but I have not realized that the promise of Starship is closer to $10/kg ballpark. I don't know if that's believable, but the implications are stunning.
***
All this on the backdrop of our social misery: tech-wise we have nice progress, but socially we have rather impressive degradation: e.g. see how the emergency vaccination effort worked in 1947 compared to what we observe today: mobile.twitter.com/ComputingByArts/status/1350732240641290240
Who knows how this combination of potentially rapid technological progress on the backdrop of impressive degradation of social structures would work...
A technology-optimistic forecast with a lot of interesting data. (The productivity curve flattening since around 2005 is stunning; interestingly enough, that curve has a good run from approx 1993 to approx 2005, mediocre between early 1970-s and early 1990-s, decent before early 1970-s.)
Other tidbits include a report on news.berkeley.edu/2020/06/15/diluting-blood-plasma-rejuvenates-tissue-reverses-aging-in-mice/
"solar, wind, and battery technology where prices have fallen 90, 70, and 87 percent over the last ten years": from www.agglomerations.tech/cracks-in-the-great-stagnation/
Space launch costs down to $2600/kg with Falcon-9 and $1500/kg with Falcon Heavy aerospace.csis.org/data/space-launch-to-low-earth-orbit-how-much-does-it-cost/
but I have not realized that the promise of Starship is closer to $10/kg ballpark. I don't know if that's believable, but the implications are stunning.
***
All this on the backdrop of our social misery: tech-wise we have nice progress, but socially we have rather impressive degradation: e.g. see how the emergency vaccination effort worked in 1947 compared to what we observe today: mobile.twitter.com/ComputingByArts/status/1350732240641290240
Who knows how this combination of potentially rapid technological progress on the backdrop of impressive degradation of social structures would work...
