Dataflow matrix machines (by Anhinga anhinga)

10 months, 2 month till the next Chinese new year:

AI: everyone has GPT-4-like systems, they even exist in open weight configurations

o1 systems with slow thinking and reflection are the edge of a new revolution (Deep Learning revolution #4, 2012-2020-2023-2024)

multi-agent systems are formidable (e.g. we have 53% success on verified tab of SWEbench, OpenHands + CodeAct v2.1 (claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022), https://www.swebench.com/)

arcprize scores are formidable at 55.5 and 53.5 for two leaders

the ability of AI systems to do AI research is getting there (not "on par" with really strong humans yet, but getting close)

a lot of new super-promising start-ups: Ilya's Safe Superintelligence, Liquid AI, and so on

Politics: Trump won, and nominated a radical cabinet with the intention to dismantle the existing order

Wars everywhere: miserable nightmare, further escalations (Ukraine is pretty bad, Syria is starting to burn)