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some Oct-Nov posts I wrote
LessWrong organized a blog writing program encouraging people to create 30 relatively long blog posts in Oct-Nov as an exercise (relatively long meant being 500+ words).
I have actually done that, here are the posts (mostly AI-related, although there were some diary-like posts too; 30 posts + 2 auxiliary ones): mishka-discord.dreamwidth.org/
(They are open for commenting, but I don't expect to continue posting new posts there.)
I have actually done that, here are the posts (mostly AI-related, although there were some diary-like posts too; 30 posts + 2 auxiliary ones): mishka-discord.dreamwidth.org/
(They are open for commenting, but I don't expect to continue posting new posts there.)
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a sequence of posts revisiting my non-anthropocentric approach to AI existential safety and my thinking about invariant properties of self-modifying systems
a sequence about AI timelines (no one knows, but the "mode" of my forecast is very aggressive, or, at least, I have a model aiming for early next year for various key events; we'll soon be able to see if that model is any good; I don't know how much I believe that model myself; its first prediction is for January (achieving "trustworthy autonomy" before the end of January), so in 6 weeks from now we'll have some preliminary idea)
a sequence about sparsity in AI models
and tons of other material including the new Ilya interview on Dwarkesh
it's interesting material, I think, but the writing is of "sketch quality" (due to being done under external pressure to write)
(the only thing that was popular with other people was "getting excused from a jury duty" (post #25))
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so, the bottom line, we are ready for singularity, and if the most naive model holds, and with the following being estimates, but not exact prediction, so we are just drawing one possible trajectory, adding the estimate of 2 months and a week to Nov 1 we'll have the estimate for the next transition around Jan 7-8 or so. Then adding another month and a few days, the next one will be around Feb 10. Then another one is around Feb 25. Then another week makes it Mar 3, and then by Mar 10 we'll have a transition to an unknown state.
no, we don't necessarily believe this, this is just an estimate from one of the models (which does not have to be correct, even if it looks like it potentially might be correct)
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