some Oct-Nov posts I wrote
Dec. 17th, 2025 11:44 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dmmLessWrong organized a blog writing program encouraging people to create 30 relatively long blog posts in Oct-Nov as an exercise (relatively long meant being 500+ words).
I have actually done that, here are the posts (mostly AI-related, although there were some diary-like posts too; 30 posts + 2 auxiliary ones): mishka-discord.dreamwidth.org/
(They are open for commenting, but I don't expect to continue posting new posts there.)
I have actually done that, here are the posts (mostly AI-related, although there were some diary-like posts too; 30 posts + 2 auxiliary ones): mishka-discord.dreamwidth.org/
(They are open for commenting, but I don't expect to continue posting new posts there.)
no subject
Date: 2025-12-18 06:03 am (UTC)so, the bottom line, we are ready for singularity, and if the most naive model holds, and with the following being estimates, but not exact prediction, so we are just drawing one possible trajectory, adding the estimate of 2 months and a week to Nov 1 we'll have the estimate for the next transition around Jan 7-8 or so. Then adding another month and a few days, the next one will be around Feb 10. Then another one is around Feb 25. Then another week makes it Mar 3, and then by Mar 10 we'll have a transition to an unknown state.
no, we don't necessarily believe this, this is just an estimate from one of the models (which does not have to be correct, even if it looks like it potentially might be correct)