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"Narrow AGI" this year?
Jan. 6th, 2025 09:04 pm"Narrow AGI" is mostly an AGI-level artificial software engineer, an AGI-level artificial mathematician, an AGI-level artificial AI researcher (and probably a single entity combining these three application areas, because a strong AI researcher has to be a decent software engineer and a decent mathematician).
It seems that at least OpenAI (and, perhaps, other entities) should have this by the middle of 2025, if not earlier, at least for their internal use (assuming no major disasters, that is, assuming that San Fransisco Bay Area is intact, and AI companies continue functioning normally).
What do we know about the technical aspects? We see o1 performance (and can experience it directly), we see the claimed (and partially confirmed) numbers for the demo versions of o3 and o3-mini, in math and in software engineering. We know that the jump from o1 to o3 took about 3 months. Two more jumps like that would probably be sufficient (and one can add "scaffolding" on top of that).
Another thing we know is that Sam Altman sounds much more confident recently. I've come to these conclusions a number of days ago, but now it turns out that Sam's mood has also shifted in a similar fashion. I'll put some links in the comments.
Jan 19 update: Sam Altman will allegedly do a closed-door government briefing on Jan 30 (that's apparently is not a very big secret and has been leaked; the main topic is presumably as follows: many people in the leading AI labs have approximately the same degree of techno-optimism as I have myself, and so their timelines are tentatively quite short). www.axios.com/2025/01/19/ai-superagent-openai-meta
Dec 31 update: no, we did not get "Narrow AGI" this year. But we had 2 revolutions, one centered in June plus/minus 2 months (o3---GPT5, "mature reasoning"), and one centered on the border of October/November plus/minus 6 weeks (GPT5-Codex---GPT5.2-Codex/Opus 4.5/Gemini 3, "competent programming software agents"). The distance between subsequent revolutions keeps shrinking: 7.5 years - 3 years - 18 months - about 9 months - about 4-5 months, mishka-discord.dreamwidth.org/4806.html (we don't know if this trend of distance between subsequent revolution shrinking continues, but we are watching what happens in January in this sense, in particular, whether we can progress to "trustworthy autonomy" in January; the current generation of agents is competent in software engineering, but there is no expectation of trust, so one has to work really hard to carefully organize security, quality control, and such, the whole lifecycle of software engineering can't be outsourced yet).
It seems that at least OpenAI (and, perhaps, other entities) should have this by the middle of 2025, if not earlier, at least for their internal use (assuming no major disasters, that is, assuming that San Fransisco Bay Area is intact, and AI companies continue functioning normally).
What do we know about the technical aspects? We see o1 performance (and can experience it directly), we see the claimed (and partially confirmed) numbers for the demo versions of o3 and o3-mini, in math and in software engineering. We know that the jump from o1 to o3 took about 3 months. Two more jumps like that would probably be sufficient (and one can add "scaffolding" on top of that).
Another thing we know is that Sam Altman sounds much more confident recently. I've come to these conclusions a number of days ago, but now it turns out that Sam's mood has also shifted in a similar fashion. I'll put some links in the comments.
Jan 19 update: Sam Altman will allegedly do a closed-door government briefing on Jan 30 (that's apparently is not a very big secret and has been leaked; the main topic is presumably as follows: many people in the leading AI labs have approximately the same degree of techno-optimism as I have myself, and so their timelines are tentatively quite short). www.axios.com/2025/01/19/ai-superagent-openai-meta
Dec 31 update: no, we did not get "Narrow AGI" this year. But we had 2 revolutions, one centered in June plus/minus 2 months (o3---GPT5, "mature reasoning"), and one centered on the border of October/November plus/minus 6 weeks (GPT5-Codex---GPT5.2-Codex/Opus 4.5/Gemini 3, "competent programming software agents"). The distance between subsequent revolutions keeps shrinking: 7.5 years - 3 years - 18 months - about 9 months - about 4-5 months, mishka-discord.dreamwidth.org/4806.html (we don't know if this trend of distance between subsequent revolution shrinking continues, but we are watching what happens in January in this sense, in particular, whether we can progress to "trustworthy autonomy" in January; the current generation of agents is competent in software engineering, but there is no expectation of trust, so one has to work really hard to carefully organize security, quality control, and such, the whole lifecycle of software engineering can't be outsourced yet).
