CoVID vs Flu: clustering (superspreading)
Oct. 1st, 2020 03:26 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dmmThere is a new overview of CoVID clustering/overdispersion/superspreading:
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
The bottom line is: CoVID has much higher non-uniformity/clustering/superspreading than flu. This partially explains why things happen so differently and unpredictably.
Most countries are mismanaging it by trying to handle it like a flu epidemics (whereas even the optimal contact tracing strategy is quite different: for a highly clustered disease like CoVID we need to figure out not whom this infected person might have exposed, but where this infected person got it from - we need to do contact tracing backwards, not forward).
See also www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
The bottom line is: CoVID has much higher non-uniformity/clustering/superspreading than flu. This partially explains why things happen so differently and unpredictably.
Most countries are mismanaging it by trying to handle it like a flu epidemics (whereas even the optimal contact tracing strategy is quite different: for a highly clustered disease like CoVID we need to figure out not whom this infected person might have exposed, but where this infected person got it from - we need to do contact tracing backwards, not forward).
See also www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all
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Date: 2020-10-03 02:43 am (UTC)https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1312217382237081601
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Date: 2020-10-03 02:56 am (UTC)