CoVID vs Flu: clustering (superspreading)
Oct. 1st, 2020 03:26 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dmmThere is a new overview of CoVID clustering/overdispersion/superspreading:
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
The bottom line is: CoVID has much higher non-uniformity/clustering/superspreading than flu. This partially explains why things happen so differently and unpredictably.
Most countries are mismanaging it by trying to handle it like a flu epidemics (whereas even the optimal contact tracing strategy is quite different: for a highly clustered disease like CoVID we need to figure out not whom this infected person might have exposed, but where this infected person got it from - we need to do contact tracing backwards, not forward).
See also www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
The bottom line is: CoVID has much higher non-uniformity/clustering/superspreading than flu. This partially explains why things happen so differently and unpredictably.
Most countries are mismanaging it by trying to handle it like a flu epidemics (whereas even the optimal contact tracing strategy is quite different: for a highly clustered disease like CoVID we need to figure out not whom this infected person might have exposed, but where this infected person got it from - we need to do contact tracing backwards, not forward).
See also www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all
no subject
Date: 2020-10-08 09:46 pm (UTC)Это не значит, что какого-то из этих вариантов "не может быть", просто, НА МОЙ ЛИЧНЫЙ ВЗГЛЯД, мы здесь не узнаем новой информации в пользу одного из вариантов...
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Впрочем, я ведь не интересуюсь этими вещами профессионально, я просто оцениваю "по касательной", и всё.
Всерьёз я, всё таки, стараюсь по-другому тратить время и усилия, совсем на другие вещи. А тут, чтобы докопаться, надо всерьёз вкалывать, если хочется узнать, как оно было на самом деле, да ещё и беспристрастно, не "подсуживая" тому варианту, который может мне нравится априори по эмоциональным и идеологическим соображениям....